Tag Archives: Moore’s Law

Solar PV costs dropped 50% last year: time for south Georgia to lead in solar power

Solar energy continues to grow by leaps and bounds worldwide. Except in Georgia. Maybe we should change that. There’s an election going on right now.

Frank Jordans wrote for AP 11 June 2012, $257 billion invested in renewable energy in 2011,

Global investment in renewable energy reached a record of $257 billion last year, with solar attracting more than half the total spending, according to a U.N. report released Monday.

Investment in solar energy surged to $147 billion in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 52 percent thanks to strong demand for rooftop photovoltaic installations in Germany, Italy, China and Britain.

Large-scale solar thermal installations in Spain and the United States also contributed to growth during a fiercely competitive year for the solar industry. Several large American and German manufacturers fell victim to price pressure from Chinese rivals that helped to halve the cost of photovoltaic modules in 2011.

Lower solar PV module price should mean more people can afford to install solar electricity, which should mean more jobs for people to install it. How much lower? According to the report:

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How long until solar beats gas?

We’ve heard even German coal importers say solar beats coal. How long until clean solar beats dirty natural gas fracking?

Southern Company has already cut energy production from coal in half, from 70 or 80% to 35%. Unfortunately, SO did that mostly by shifting to natural gas. Natural gas produced through “a revolution in shale gas”, commonly known as fracking. Do we want to trade dirty water for clean air?

Unlike Johnson & Johnson and Dell (and Coke and Pepsi and Amazon and and more than a dozen more, including even Wal-Mart), the Southern Company has not cut ties with ALEC and its pro-fracking and anti-solar campaign. Why is the Southern Company betting on a dirty horse?

How long until SO CEO Thomas A. Fanning’s “one day” when renewable energy becomes economical? Sooner than his prediction of next decade, as in two years ago solar crossed nuclear, wind is already at parity with nuclear, and even Southern Company realizes coal doesn’t beat anything anymore.

How long before solar beats natural gas, relegating gas to much-reduced use as a backup for sun and wind power, as John Blackburn already projected in March 2010 can happen in North Carolina?

How long will it take for the sun and the wind, with a little water and even less natural gas, to power the world? How long? Not long.

Because the arc of the solar Moore’s Law is long, but it bends down for price per watt, while the price of fracking, no matter the quakes and dirty water for ever, does not.

-jsq

Solar is coming —Michael Noll

Received yesterday on Solar tipping point within a few years. -jsq
In line with comments made by Steven Chu:

Solar cheaper than fossil fuels in a decade, says Steven Chu, by Christopher Mims, 3 November 2011.

Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels at some point between the end of this decade and 2026*, said U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu

as well as a recent Op-Ed piece by Paul Krugman:

Here Comes Solar by Paul Krugman, 6 November 2011.

…progress in solar panels has been so dramatic and sustained that, as a blog post at Scientific American put it, “there’s now frequent talk of a ‘Moore’s law’ in solar energy,” with prices adjusted for inflation falling around 7 percent a year.

This has already led to rapid growth in solar installations, but even more change may be just around the corner. If the downward trend continues — and if anything it seems to be accelerating — we’re just a few years from the point at which electricity from solar panels becomes cheaper than electricity generated by burning coal.

And if we priced coal-fired power right, taking into account the huge health and other costs it imposes, it’s likely that we would already have passed that tipping point.

-Michael Noll

I added the blockquotes and the Moore’s Law link. Seems to me physicist Sec. Chu must be looking only at the sticker price, while economist Krugman is also looking at other costs and at externalities not currently included in the sticker price, yet still costing us in other ways. Add in the costs of wars for oil and I wonder how long ago solar already became cheaper than oil….

-jsq

Calculate how much Vogtle is costing you —Mandy Hancock

Received yesterday, related to Georgia Power forges ahead with expensive nukes. -jsq
For those of you concerned about nuclear energy, here are some quick, meaningful actions you can take today. Maybe you aren’t concerned about nuclear energy. I bet you ARE concerned about $$$$.

Learn more about how Georgia Power is getting your money at the state and federal level. All US taxpayers all over the US are basically cosigning a loan for $8.3 B for the Vogtle reactors. Simultaneously, Georgia Power is raising your electric rates to fund the pre-construction costs by pulling the same advanced cost recovery scheme as SC and FL. You can learn more about the controversy surrounding the loan guarantees here

Calculate how much Vogtle is costing you on your monthly bill

(Look for “Nuclear Construction Cost Recovery Rider:”)

-Mandy Hancock

He is in the business of selling energy, not saving it. —Michael G. Noll

Received yesterday on Georgia Power forges ahead with expensive nukes. -jsq
Thanks for posting this John!

Mr. Bowers’ visit and his comments are almost comical, particularly his quote that “the government is stimulating for renewables to give them a running chance but, when you remove them, the question is can they run on their own two feet?”

A good question! Fact is that neither coal nor nuclear would be able to “run on their two own feet” if it wasn’t for the large subsidies both have received for decades. Now these are nicely hidden subsidies so that the average consumer thinks he is getting a bargain, without realizing that it is us, the consumers, who have actually paid for this “inexpensive rate”.

At the same time truly renewable and clean energies

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Georgia Power forges ahead with expensive nukes

Would you buy two new nukes from a company that ran over budget by a factor of 13 last time it built nuclear reactors at the same site? When one of those reactors got shut down for days a couple mnths ago? When another reactor even closer to us was discovered leaking radioactivity into our aquifer? A company that got the state to agree it could keep all its profit and socialize any cost overruns by passing them on to you, the customers? Well, Georgia Power CEO Paul Bowers thinks you should trust such a company to build nukes for gapower’s profit you!

Today in the VDT David Rodock wrote, Georgia Power discusses nuclear, solar, energy costs

Georgia Power president and CEO Paul Bowers visited Valdosta late last week to talk nuclear energy, solar and what the company has been doing to cut energy costs for their customers.
Yet another dignitary visits without telling the public first.

Anyway, much of the story is about how cost-effective and safe Continue reading →

Solar Cheaper Than Fossil Power in Five Years —Mark M. Little of GE

Brian Wingfield wrote for Bloomberg 26 May 2011, GE Sees Solar Cheaper Than Fossil Power in Five Years
Solar power may be cheaper than electricity generated by fossil fuels and nuclear reactors within three to five years because of innovations, said Mark M. Little, the global research director for General Electric Co. (GE)

“If we can get solar at 15 cents a kilowatt-hour or lower, which I’m hopeful that we will do, you’re going to have a lot of people that are going to want to have solar at home,” Little said yesterday in an interview in Bloomberg’s Washington office. The 2009 average U.S. retail rate per kilowatt-hour for electricity ranges from 6.1 cents in Wyoming to 18.1 cents in Connecticut, according to Energy Information Administration data released in April.

GE is working on thin film solar. Meanwhile, costs are already coming down: Continue reading →

The plummeting cost of solar electricity

Computers are so small and cheap these days that the phone in your pocket has more computing power than the biggest corporate computers of a few decades ago. A similar phenomenon is driving down the cost of solar electricity. Ramez Naam writes in ScientificAmerican, Smaller, cheaper, faster: Does Moore’s law apply to solar cells? Here’s a summary in one diagram:

Solar may not be the most affordable power source today, but wait a few years and it will be. Or get on with organizing the political and corporate structures to be ready. In sunny south Georgia, solar is our best bet.

-jsq